A predictive methodology for vessel travel times: An application on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW)

The Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) is one of the most used corridors in the U.S. inland waterway commerce network, necessitating accurate travel time estimation for operational planning (departure times and on-time arrivals). This paper addresses the significant need to assess GIWW travel times and proposes a two-phase approach using Automatic Identification System data and other data sets. In the initial phase, forecasting models and event evaluation methods were applied to predict travel times based on specific events, and in the second phase, the impact of different variables on system performance was investigated. The results indicate that sample count (completed trips through a link) does not significantly influence travel time across any link. The statistical analysis highlights two critical conditions affecting travel time: dredging and shoaling. Furthermore, the analysis presented in this paper estimates the expected magnitude of these events and their probability of occurrence. By applying the proposed methodology to estimate travel times of the GIWW, this paper contributes to enhancing travel time estimation tools, offering valuable information for decision-makers, operators, and users navigating this crucial waterway.