Efectos de corto y largo plazo de los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales en la recaudación del Impuesto al Valor Agregado

The objective of this work is to determine the short and long-term impact of the 2007 and 2013 fiscal amnesty programs on VAT collection in Mexico for the period of 1980-2016. A multivariate ARIMA model was used for the analysis. The results show that tax credit waiver programs did not affect VAT collection in the long term. The predominant effect shows a change of level with short-term adjustment. It is recommended to not use these programs for collection purposes, since they do not generate long-term effects and do not benefit voluntary compliance. For the analysis, it was necessary to ensure that stationary and non-correlated series are used. The originality of this lies in the methodology used to determine the impact of fiscal amnesty programs promoted by the Mexican government to increase tax collection. In consensus with the literature, a short-term effect is confirmed for VAT collection and the absence of any long-term effect.